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Saturday, April 21, 2012

Sucky Odds

Went to the local 2012 Home Show, which the local contractors association (known as CAK) advertised "Win $25,000 Cash, The first 1,000 adults over the age of 21 receive the opportunity"....

How misleading. The game, a scratch off ticket with 6x6 squares. The objective scratch only 6 square and reveal 6 stars, and you win. So I get up there, scratch mine, first one is wrong, game over. Guy mentions that someone got 3 stars, then the 4th one was off.

Little advertisement to the odds of winning.  Lets go through the probability
P = P(6|36) * P(5|35) * P(4|34) * P(3|33) * P(2|32) * P(1:31)
P = 0.16 * 0.14 * 0.12 * 0.09 * 0.06 * 0.03
P = 4.3 * 10^-7
1:2.3Million
Yeah.. nice odds. thanks
Pretty much means they weren't planning on giving any money away. They might as well have offered $1Million.

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